31 posts tagged “elections”
I don't know if its the fact that I am really busy these days and have less time for Nate's long form posts, or if its the proliferation of guest bloggers who I am not interested in reading, or the absence of Sean Quinn (where the hell did he go anyway? last I heard he had a White House press pass), or the fact that a blog about elections is just no fun without the thrill of the election.
Whatever it is, I am finding FiveThirtyEight.com really dull these days.
*Sigh*
Oh how I long for the days of a protracted primary battle with new debates, polls and elections every week. The times when I went to sleep with MSNBC and woke up with Nate and Politico. When I could flip between primary returns and baseball.
Plus, no one seems to want to run against Gillibrand and Cuomo won't primary Paterson, so what do I have to look foward to...2012???
The fun times of living in New York just keep on coming. Here's a recap of some recent events:
- No one (including Nate and NY1) seems to know if there are enough votes in the Senate to pass gay marriage even as sponsor Tom Duane insists the votes are there
- Sen. Diaz (who oppose same-sex marriage) tells Sen. Duane to name names or shut up (charming)
- Of course, the solution to this is to put it to a vote, but no one seems to want that
- President Obama nominated Rep. John McHugh (R-23) to be Secretary of the Army which means upstate gets another SPECIAL ELECTION
- Republicans say the president picked McHugh to put the seat in play for the Democrats and the jockeying to replace him has already begun -- great, we get to do this all over again
- There is an ongoing debate about ethics reform (that I do not understand) and when things are debated in Albany they don't seem to happen
- The bottle bill that was passed just a few weeks ago, has been put on hold by the courts because no one can figure out how to make it work
- Andrew Cuomo says that he will not primary Gov. Paterson, which means that our terrible Governor will likely run for re-election and will likely lose
- How bad is our governor? Nate ranked him dead last in his Gubernatorial Power Rankings -- YES!!!
I am so proud to be a New Yorker right now.
(Most MSM links are via Capital Confidential)
UPDATE: And New Hampshire makes us look even worse by making same-sex marriage legal today.
Please nominate Newt for President in 2012.
Pretty please? With sugar on top?
After all, the last two times you nominated an old(er) party standard-bearer it worked out just great.
[Post inspired by this article.]
Jim Tedisco has conceded (via AOA).The new Congressman for New York's 20th District will be Democrat Scott Murphy.
A few weeks back I started tracking the evolution of the vote count during the recanvasing. Due to different disputes of absentee ballots (and various court rulings on those disputes) the count has changed almost daily, and ofter twice a day, since election night. Since I am kind of a political geek, I thought it deserved a chart, take a look:
The current count is Murphy 80,420 to Tedisco 80,021, a 399 vote margin. I am sure it will change before the vote is certified, but none the less it seems to be over. And guess what? Nate Silver called this one, not once, but three times.
Congratulations to Rep. Murphy. Thank goodness this one is over.
So, does Michael Steele start writing his resignation letter now?
Well, the race hand count for New York's 20th Congressional district is still going on. As of this morning Democrat Scott Murphy held a 168 vote edge.
Earlier today election savant Nate Silver projected that Murphy would win by 500+ votes based on the outstanding absentee ballots. In his post, Silver projected that Republican Jim Tedisco would pick new 132 new votes from his strong-hold of Saratoga County.
Well, the numbers are in, and guess what? Tedicso got 163 new votes.
You can't make this stuff up.
Note: with all the new numbers in today, Murphy is now up by 86 votes.
The race for New York's 20th Congressional seat is still not over (officially). And depending on which unofficial count you believe, either Scott Murphy has the lead or Jim Tedisco does.
We'll know more as they start counting absentee ballots today.
But I say it's over. Why? Because election/poll guru Nate Silver has weighed in. Nate says that if you look at the locations of the absentee voters and the results from the counties on election night, then Murphy has the advantage (especially if you believe that he has the current vote lead).
Keep in mind, the last time Silver projected an outcome using a similar method he was mostly right. So does that mean we have a six month court battle to look forward to? Great.
An NRCC campaign ad for the NY-20th Congressional race (via Capitol Confidential):
Personally I have always been disturbed by the finality of the death penalty. For example, we will never know what motivated Timothy McVeigh because he can never tell us. Where others involved in his horrendous crime? Would he ever denounced his crimes and given us more details on why he planted that bomb? Is it possible that the events of September 11, 2001 (exactly three months after he was put to death) would have changed his perspective? We will never know because he is dead.
But lets put all that aside. Lets assume that the system works and that some crimes are so terrible that the death penalty is warranted. Lets just look at this add for what it is: hackneyed political fear mongering. Haven't we moved beyond this? Hasn't our discourse evolved just a bit in the last eight years? Apparently not. These are the same despicable tactics that the G.O.P. used in 2002 to defeat an honorable man like Max Cleland.
Now, Scott Murphy is no Max Cleland, but he is a decent man and has a point. He made it badly, and he was called out on it by a political pinhead who went right to the terrorist card, but he has a point. It is a complex issue and one that I personally wish we would stop taking so lightly (especially since we stand alone in the developed world on this one).
I feel bad for Jim Tedisco. He is a respectable politician, but he has allowed his campaign to be taken over by the worst elements of the G.O.P. No wonder the latest poll (PDF) shows that people perceive his campaign as too negative.
In other "how screwed up is New York State" news: the Governor finally spoke and acted like a bit of a jerk when asked why he's gone back to "Three Men in a Room" (who still don't have a budget).
So we have a totally f-ed up Congressional race, a Governor who can't govern and the budget will likely be printed at midnight on Sunday to be put to a vote on Tuesday (without anyone having read it).
Vermont is looking good right now. Hell, Massachusetts is looking good right now.
Possible delay for 20th CD race
A U.S. Department of Justice lawsuit could delay next week’s special election in the 20th Congressional District because military and overseas absentee voters might not have enough time for their votes to be counted.
OK, really? There were accusations that Gov. Patterson played politics by delaying calling the special election to give Democratic newcomer Scott Murphy more time for a public roll-out. In New York a special election must be held within 30 days of the governor certifying the vacancy.
So couldn't Paterson have done the math to put the greatest distance between the date he certified the vacancy and the date he sets for the election?
Oh wait, I forgot, he can't do anything right, not even democracy. This state government is a joke. I am tempted to move across the border.
In related news, I guest blogged on A Mistake's site today, enjoy.
Once again, blogging for A Mistake who is on hiatus (he gave me several of these links).
Here in upstate New York we have a special election coming up to fill the seat left vacant when we got a new Junior Senator.
This use to be a safe GOP district until 2006 when Kirsten Gillibrand turned it blue. Well the Republicans want it back so bad that they are running a really nasty campaign against a relatively unknown Democrat. How nasty? Well, lets just say that the local NBC affiliate would not run an ad put out by the GOP until it had documentation that the claims in it were true.
This post from the Times Union (local daily) yesterday led to this really terrible conversation between a TU reporter and the director of the National GOP Trust PAC (who produced the ad). Take the time to listen to the audio, it is great to watch a political hack lose it on a reporter who is simply asking questions.
This went from local interest story to national blog topic when Wonkette and Gawker picked up on it (Gawker has the ad that started the whole thing).
And local blog All Over Albany also posted thier update on the race today (including some more of the mud slinging ads).
How important is this for the GOP? Nate Silver thinks if they don't win Michael Steel is going down. Well, they are not doing themselves any favors by yelling at reporters.
This isn't my district so I'm only interested because its political theater. But at this point I just want it to be over.
UPDATE: This is A Mistake approved.
Now, I don't normally quote pundits but there were two lines last night that I thought were brilliant. The first was humorous: after PA went blue (as expected) Joe Scarboro said "Pennsylvania is fools gold for Republicans. Every election they think they can win the Philly suburbs and they never do."
The second quote was more poignant. Gene Robinson, MSNBC's sole black commentator said "Tonight it feels different to be an America." I could not agree more.
I thought that McCain's speech was gracious and one of his best (concession speeches often are, see Clinton, Hillary). I hope that he and Obama are smart enough to realize that they both could benefit for working together on some key issues. Obama gets to prove that he really is post-partisan and McCain can rehab his badly damaged image.
Obama's speech was not one of his best. I honestly think that the address he gave in June when he captured the nomination was better. But these are more sober times and they called for a more sober message. History was on stage tonight and it was not time for too many platitudes. But I admit that I cried while listening, especially when he described the 106 year-old black woman in Georgia. It put the entire night in the grand context of history that it deserved.
Seeing Jesse Jackson and Oprah in the crowd was touching. They are celebrities, but they are also black Americans who have faced discrimination. It was powerful to see how these larger than life figures were touched at that moment.
Also worth noting is the loses by the GOP in Congress. Two years ago I wrote about how "my GOP", the Northeastern, moderate Republicans, was dead. Well if it was not dead in 2006, it is dead now. Chris Shays, the last GOP House member from New England was voted out and Democrats picked up seats in New York and New Jersey. All of New York City is now represented by Democrats.
Bush has done a number on the party. The GOP has to regroup, but it may take many years and require the emergence of a new, dynamic leader before they can do that. The fractures that have divided the party are deep and repairing them will take some work . Meanwhile the nation is becoming more urban and more Hispanic, both changes that seem to create more challenges for the Republicans.
As for our President-elect, he has a lot of work to do and very high expectations. As he said himself, we cannot fix everything in one year or even one term (nice plug for re-election), but like almost 64 million other Americans I have hope that he can turn things around.
Indeed, today it feels different to be an American.
